Read an interesting article in The Wall Street Journal today. The question was – “When did the US recession start and when will it end?” Haha…as if I know! Or for matter, as if even they know!
But nonetheless, what’s the harm in discussing what the whole freaking world is discussing (most of them, without knowing the R of Recession)!
About the start of recession, I agree with what the ‘analysts’ had to say – it probably started somewhere in the first quarter… but of course was detected much later!
Now the bigger question is when will it end? According to National Bureau of Economic Research, in the last 16 periods of economic contractions in the U.S., the average recovery period has been 13 months. Taking this and the halfway-rule in account, it means that this should be a good time to enter the stock market! But only if it was so simple…. Two complications still remain. A – No one is certain that recession did actually start in the first quarter and B – Doesn’t this look like a worse-than-average recession? And if it is so, it might not recover in the average period of 13 months. It might take 2 years or 3 years…who knows!
Lets see what Mr. Obama has on his mind! Btw, another article also says that Barack Obama is not very favorable for the free trade and if he starts opposing it, it can be a real danger for us and other Asian countries… And they are recalling the last time when a young, energetic and democratic man, who had little knowledge of the policies, ruled the US (referring to Mr. Bill Clinton here) – he created a havoc in the relations! And according to the ‘experts’, Mr. Obama is even worse – he has even lesser knowledge of the policies and the complexities involved (don’t kill me for writing this, this is what I read in WSJ!)… Well… lets see what ‘CHANGES’ await us!
What do you think?
[...] Is it time yet? Bill Clinton here) – he craeted a havoc in the relations! And according to the ‘experts’, Mr. Obama is even worse – he has even lesser knowledge of the policies and the complexities involved (don’t kill me for writing this, … [...]
i am the least qualified of you all to comment on economic issues so would present my views with a pinch of political analysis. i share the enthusiasm of millions of others who attached high hopes (and often unrealistic ones throughout the campaign) to Obama and i have no freaking idea why i feel so. more so, knowing that as a country, in the overall analysis, we were the net beneficiaries of Bush era, in particular, politically. we have never been closer to US than this before. we have the N-deal. we no longer hear US democrats always ranting about right to self-decision in kashmir and human rights violation blames of Clinton era and stuff like that. We may not like all that entails from Obama presidency for us. but for the world as a whole it should be a good change since it cannt be as bad as US bombing at free will, millions of refugees all over the world, hatred and intolerance the world over!
cheers
The average American is overdrawn for the next 2 years minimum. Basically means that if he stops spending on anything and all his salary is used to pay off his credit cards, it will take 2 years to pay it all off.
At this rate, will the recession end? Can the question be- when will it stop affecting others? US recession may slow down but it will keep affecting us. Why? Because the whole world is tuned to producing so that the average American can buy. We need to look at ourselves as the market. Which means give purchasing power to the janta below povert line. If China can do this, we surely are smart enough to work this around for us.
Americans are very protective about internal matters and ruthless to outsides- more so Democrats; when it comes to the environment and labour unions. Obama (pakka Democrat) has on his agenda making inhouse hybrid cars. If this really starts, and will not be surprising, then it cascades to other things and Obama wins a second term
! Regarding what’s good for India, he is pro outsourcing. But barely 10 % of US businesses actually outsouce since they are mostly medium and small scale businesses. Will they buy our cars? Not very likely. I forgot where this was going….
@Sanju…yes I think I agree here as well
… Even if its bad for us and other Asian countries… it should hopefully be good for the world as a whole..lets keep our fingers crossed!
@Arjun… It doesn’t necessarily have to go somewhere…we can just wander around
Well… yes it will sure keep affecting us for a longer time, more so if Obama decides to put a barrier on ‘free trade’…and yes you’re right…the auto industry is one of the first things on his agenda… in fact I read that in his meeting with Bush in the White Hiuse…they more or less discussed the auto-industry only
Its time we learn more from China than just producing a lot of children!
Btw…however serious the stuff maybe…you never fail to make me laugh…no idea why
hmm….really something 2 discuss abt it in detail…
so here it is…
your take on the crisis…on who to blame and the result…
http://simplykhabar.wordpress.com/2008/11/20/coloured-chequestopink-slips/